Bitcoin (BTC) is painting a typical August picture as the new week begins — with no volatility in sight.

BTC price action continued its calmest move ever, with the largest cryptocurrency still locked in a tight trading range below $30,000.

Bitcoin is increasingly frustrating market watchers, both in the long and short term. Despite the tug-of-war between bulls and bears on exchanges, neither side appears to be able to set a new Bitcoin price trend.

Will the status quo be maintained this week?

With few macroeconomic triggers, the catalyst for change needs to come from elsewhere. The data shows that whales are accumulating, fueling an argument that Bitcoin is preparing for its next major breakout phase in classic fashion.

Similar conclusions have been drawn from some of the narrowest Bitcoin volatility recorded by the Bollinger Bands indicator, with the current situation comparable to September 2016 and January 2023.

By definition, it may only be a matter of time before history repeats itself.

Bitcoin mimics action to start new week range-bound

Bitcoin spot price performance saw a small swing at the weekly close, but just like last week, this was short-lived.

After the opening of the new weekly candle, BTC/USD dropped to $29,000 before returning to its previous position – a position that remains unchanged as of writing, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Cointelegraph Markets Pro. transaction view show.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm 8, noted these similarities while reiterating his view that the $29,700 level can be reclaimed by the bulls.

Over the weekend, van der Pope described the overall lack of volatility as “extremely surprising.”

“Sunday night’s classic dump happened on Bitcoin,” he Tell X subscribers and a graph showing related areas of interest.

“Keep supporting, all is well. Keep up the range. Parties start at over $29,700.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michael van de Poppe/X

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades has a similar view on the short-term movement, noting that even the weekend was going to extremes of unusual calm.

“As expected, volatility around the CME close. We haven’t seen anything different for a long time,” he said. Summarize.

“Volatility is very low this time around. Even for a weekend.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X

The accompanying chart puts the previous week’s close of $29,465 on CME Bitcoin futures in focus at the start of the week.

Weekly close sets key BTC price level

Still, the weekly close itself does offer a silver lining to those analyzing longer-term trends.

Bitcoin closed narrowly above $29,250, a key level that prominent trader and analyst Rekt Capital has highlighted in recent weeks.

In an X post ahead of the event, Rekt Capital mentioned BTC price action after previous closes at $29,250 or higher.

“Bitcoin’s upward momentum has entered the region around $30,200, as it did last week and April 2023,” he said. famous.

“But if BTC can close above $29,250 on a weekly basis, the uptrend will be less bearish.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Potential resistance is provided by the relative strength index (RSI) data, which continues to show a bearish divergence from price on the intraweek time frame.

“BTC’s weekly bearish divergence will remain intact unless RSI can break out of its downtrend (green),” Rekt Capital commented about phenomena.

BTC/USD annotated chart with RSI. Source: Rekt Capital/X

Historical data says little about how BTC/USD will perform ahead of the monthly close.

According to Cointelegraph, the price performance of BTC in August has been mixed, and so far, Bitcoin has barely changed compared to the end of July.

Data from Monitoring Resources coin glass The current 0.6% gain marks Bitcoin’s quietest August on record.

BTC/USD monthly return chart (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

Low Volatility Stimulates Bitcoin Price Breakout Predictions

It’s hard to avoid the topic of volatility (or lack thereof) when analyzing the current state of Bitcoin.

Despite heavy media coverage, even outside of the cryptocurrency space, the near-total absence of price volatility has been the defining feature of BTC’s price action for much of the second quarter.

The latest figures reveal just how static the situation has become – and what happens next.

The Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) currently sits at 9.57 on a weekly time frame, quickly falling back to all-time lows from the start of the year.

It’s no secret what happened when Bitcoin broke out of its downtrend in January, with its first-quarter gains totaling 70%.

Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index (BVOL) 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

“Bitcoin is getting less and less volatile,” van de Poppe said pointed out.

“We’re going to have a big move in the market in about a week or two.”

Similar conclusions were drawn from the Bollinger Volatility indicator, which is now also repeating its behavior from early 2023.

The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands has prevented the price breakout, and while it is unclear whether the price will rise or fall, the extent of the price compression has market participants bracing for a big change.

“The spread between the upper and lower bands of Bitcoin’s Bollinger Bands is only 2.9% and is the narrowest it’s ever been,” Checkmate, Glassnode’s lead on-chain analyst, wrote in a note. X posts August 14th.

Checkmate revealed that there have only been two tightening Bollinger bands in Bitcoin history – in September 2016 and January 2023.

“Crazy stuff,” he concluded.

Bitcoin Bollinger Bands Range Annotated Chart. Source: General/X

Whale ‘reaccumulation’ narrative strengthened

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on the interesting movement of Bitcoin whales amid stale Bitcoin price trends.

Analysis shows that this is continuing, and what appears to be a build-up is becoming a bigger talking point for those looking for signs of a bull market returning.

“About 10 Bitcoin whales have joined the network in the past two weeks, each holding at least 1,000 BTC (worth at least $29.4 million)!” Hot Trader Ali famous In the weekend.

glass node data The total number of addresses with a balance of at least 1,000 BTC was 2,015 as of Aug. 13, up from 2,005 on Aug. 1.

Chart of the number of Bitcoin addresses with balances over 1,000 BTC. Source: Glassnode

Maartunn, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, flagged the appearance of new whales on major exchange Bitfinex as evidence that “something is brewing beneath the surface.”

“The bottom of the cycle is off to a strong start and is now in re-accumulation mode,” said Root, an on-chain and cycle analyst. continuepointing to the realized price number.

The realized price of Bitcoin is the total price at the last change in the supply of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin realized price chart. Source: root/X

Fed FOMC Minutes Lead Macro Week Cooldown

The cryptocurrency market is enjoying a period of relatively calm macroeconomic data, coinciding with the summer lull.

Related: Bitcoin’s Sideways Price Action Leads Traders to Focus on SHIB, UNI, MKR, and XDC

This week, while U.S. consumer data was “big,” the Fed minutes were the main highlight.

The minutes will show members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on interest rate policy, as they did when they raised rates last month.

Risk asset traders continue to focus on a possible pause in interest rate hikes at the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting – which should also benefit cryptocurrencies.

According to data from CME Group Fed Watch ToolWith just over a month until the meeting, the chances of that happening are almost 90 percent.

Fed target rate probability chart.Source: CME Group

At the same time, any knee-jerk reaction in bitcoin prices to this week’s data releases seems unlikely — with more important data releases failing to move markets last week.

Magazine: Deposit Risk: What Are Crypto Exchanges Really Doing With Your Money?

This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and transaction involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.