Bitcoin investor and author Jesse Myers believes Bitcoin (BTC) will only reach six figures after the block subsidy halving in 2024, not before.
In X (formerly Twitter) postal On August 15, Miles, co-founder of Bitcoin investment firm Onramp, said the market would only “digest” the halving after it.
Markets Not ‘Efficient’ After Bitcoin Halving
With the next halving event approaching in the first half of 2024, Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle is once again in the spotlight.
Miners will see rewards per block drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, while the corresponding drop in emissions and its impact on supply and demand has analysts excited.
For Myers, however, the impact will only be confirmed by the market after the halving occurs.
“Bitcoin will not surge to $100,000 until the next halving,” he concluded.
The rationale comes in the form of a critique of market intuition. Myers claims that the efficient market hypothesis (EMF), which states that markets always reflect the true state of a particular asset, is “wrong.”
“Instead, the market will digest the changed reality within 12 to 18 months after the halving,” he added.
Current analysis shows that in the year leading up to the halving event, Bitcoin’s price performance has been similar each time.
Candle 4 exactly represents the year #BTC cut in half
And historically, bitcoin dollar Tends to retrace early on new candle 4
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) August 8, 2023
Halving and Bitcoin price: “Everything is very predictable”
This stance stands in stark contrast to some recent predictions for how bitcoin’s price action will evolve in the coming months and beyond.
Related: Bitcoin Could Fall 15% By October, But Hit $100,000 In 2026 – Analysis
Some believe a breakout is imminent, and October is currently a popular deadline for a Bitcoin bull return. $100,000 or more is not uncommon in terms of pre-halving price predictions.
One of the latest calls for six-figure bitcoin comes from bestselling Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki, who doubled the price of bitcoin this week prophecy.
At the same time, historical analysis shows that most of Bitcoin’s cycle gains occur post-halving, not pre-halving.
Trading team Stockmoney Lizards revealed this month that it took up to 240 days for BTC/USD to hit a new all-time high after the past three halvings.
“This is all predictable. New all-time highs will come shortly after the 2024 halving. Accumulation phase” Tell X-subscribers.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and transaction involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.