Bitcoin (BTC) has started the new week above $30,000 but is going nowhere, with a multi-month trading range refusing to change.

All that Bitcoin’s price action offers traders is a depressing sense of déjà vu as they wonder what can be done to change the trend.

It might be more accurate to say that on shorter time frames, trends are exactly what Bitcoin lacks. The largest cryptocurrency has spent weeks bouncing between upside and downside liquidity pockets without deciding whether bulls or bears will ultimately win.

The fight continues with predictable regularity, but nothing — whether macroeconomic data, institutional engagement, or anything else — is going to change the status quo.

With that in mind, it may not be a problem that there will be little data-driven catalyst for risk assets from the US or the Fed in the week ahead.

Bitcoin on-chain data suggests that the investor base is in a re-accumulation phase, which may reflect a “calm before the storm” mentality ahead of more significant market moves.

Crypto market sentiment is “neutral,” according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index, but remains at its lowest point so far in July.

Cointelegraph examines these factors and more to identify potential BTC price triggers in the coming days.

Bitcoin Weekly Close Avoids Volatility

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and Cointelegraph shows Bitcoin’s weekly candle closes refreshingly opting to smooth out volatility. transaction view show.

BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: TradingView

While short-term price action is typically erratic, the close was barely disturbed and even the $30,000 support level was unchallenged.

As a result, BTC/USD has been stuck in a tight “range” since last week, when a false breakout in upward liquidity led to a new yearly high, followed by a sharp decline.

“I think everyone can see the range with their eyes closed at this point,” said Daan Crypto Trades, a popular trader. Summarize.

“It’s easy for me. Bulls have to get back $30,500 before I can think about removing inefficiencies in the dump. Until then, my base case is price seeking $29,500 for liquidity.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/Twitter

Others agree that a new local low could be next for Bitcoin given the bulls’ inability to break out of the range for an extended period of time.

A return to $27,400, an area it hasn’t seen in nearly a month, is not out of the question for fellow traders Credible Crypto.

Crypto trader Tony suggested a potential downside target area around $28,300, adding that it “remains his bias.”

In terms of strength at local price points, trader Yeller pointed to the ongoing battle on Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has recently seen a bearish divergence from the price trajectory.

“Bitcoin tried to clear the bearish divergence last week, but quickly fell,” he said. commented as part of his latest analysis.

“Both bulls and bears fiercely defending their positions. More ping pong until breakout.”

Earnings season leads U.S. data releases

Those hoping for a macroeconomic stimulus for a reshuffling of risky assets may be disappointed this week in the absence of key U.S. data.

The bright spots were tech earnings and jobless claims on July 20, but with about two weeks until the Fed’s rate hike decision, volatility remains.

“Earnings season is now in full swing, with the July Fed meeting in focus. It’s going to be a busy few weeks,” wrote financial commentary resource Corbesi Letters in a recent social media analysis.

according to Markets still believe the Fed will resume raising interest rates, according to current estimates from CME Group’s FedWatch tool, despite positive data showing a faster-than-expected pullback in inflation.

As of July 17, the probability of a 0.25% hike was almost unanimous at 96.1%.

Fed target rate probability map.Source: CME Group

Meanwhile, the index to watch is the U.S. dollar index (DXY), which is now trying to reclaim the 100 mark after falling below the 100 mark for the first time in more than a year.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin previously showed a strong negative correlation with DXY, although this correlation has weakened significantly in 2023.

US dollar index 1-day chart. Source: TradingView

whales return to action

Speaking of on-chain data, the reawakening of Bitcoin whales has on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant excited.

As noted by contributing analyst SignalQuant, unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) reflecting a large number of tokens are increasing this year — typical bull market style.

SignalQuant cites the UTXO Value Band indicator, which shows whales gradually coming back to life in 2023 after a rapid retreat in the second half of 2022.

“From this perspective, as ‘whale groups’ rise in price in 2019, their price slowly rises in 2023,” he wrote in a CryptoQuant article. shorthand July 16th blog post.

“If their indicators are gradually rising, then we can be more confident that 1) their price is a long-term bottom at the end of 2022, and 2) their price will continue to rise.”

Bitcoin whale UTXO data. Source: CryptoQuant

Previously, Cointelegraph reported on the rebound in the number of whales and the exposure (at current prices) of other larger investor groups.

Supply dynamics repeat early bullish signals

When it comes to hidden bullish bitcoin price signals, it’s not just whales that analysts are focusing on right now.

The latest on-chain data shows that more BTC is in supply near $30,000 than at any other price point, reflecting a key point of interest for the entire investor community.

According to data from on-chain analytics platform Look Into Bitcoin, the total supply has seen a 3.8% movement in the region of around $30,200.

Meanwhile, long-dormant old supply is being revived. Philip Swift, founder of Look Into Bitcoin, said last week that this has characterized the early days of every bitcoin bull market so far.

“Increased on-chain spending shows where we are in the cycle. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it tends to rhyme,” he said commented.

Bitcoin Value Day Destroyed Multiple Charts. Source: Glassnode

‘Greed’ disappears from crypto markets

Issues exhibit The fickle nature of the average cryptocurrency investor compared to the classic sentiment benchmark, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.

Related: Bitcoin exchanges now hold the same share of BTC supply as they did in late 2017

Although with a slight lag, Fear and Greed captures the rapidly shifting sentiment of market participants within established trading ranges.

This is the case around the key $30,000 border, with sentiment improving markedly above and deteriorating below.

Currently, the index is in neutral territory, but at 54/100, its lowest point in July.

Extremes of fear or greed are often advance warnings of market rallies or pullbacks, respectively.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

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