Grayscale Investments, which has been seeking to convert its bitcoin (BTC) trust into a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, may make a decision on its lawsuit against federal securities regulators by the end of the week.
Scott Johnsson, a general partner at Van Buren Capital, explained in an Aug. 11 Twitter post that U.S. District Court clerks typically rotate in August, forcing judges “to sit on the new guard.” before arrival” to clear the caseload.
he famous Thirty of the 32 cases in March 2021 and 2022 were heard by the U.S. District Court within 160 days of the oral testimony, and those cases were also heard in August, adding that it has been since Grayscale began oral arguments in the lawsuit. 160 days have passed since March 7 against the SEC.
Cases decided within 160 days of oral adjudication in March 21/22: 30/32 (94%)
Days since Grayscale (March 23) oral: 160 days
Why should we look forward to August? Since legal clerks in D.C. typically cycle in and out during the month, the judge is aiming to clear the previous caseload before the new guard arrives. https://t.co/vVj0dHus90
— Scott Johnson (@SGJohnsson) August 14, 2023
As of now, including Grayscale, there are only a handful of unresolved cases in the March dispute, Johnson added.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said the decision could even come as early as Aug. 15, noting that this date has long been his “theoretical grayscale suit.” decision date”.
August 15th has been my theoretical Grayscale lawsuit judgment date for a while, but it’s really just an educated guess.I haven’t even done a detailed analysis of the court’s decisions, such as @SGJohnsson did.But I did a little bit more, and also with @NYCStein About the schedule
— James Seyff (@JSeyff) August 14, 2023
Johnson added in his post that Seifat’s forecast was a “pretty good bet”.
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In June 2022, the SEC rejected Grayscale’s application to convert its GBTC into a spot Bitcoin ETF.
In response, Grayscale sued securities regulators, saying it acted arbitrary and failed to apply consistent treatment to similar investment vehicles.
Many industry commentators, including ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and ETF analyst Nate Geraci, are predicting Grayscale will win the lawsuit.
There’s a lot of noise out there, so here’s my official spot bitcoin ETF prediction…
First, I think Grayscale won the lawsuit.
Second, the combination of Grayscale’s lawsuit win + COIN SSA is enough to get SEC approval, in my opinion.
In other words, I think we are getting a spot bitcoin ETF. Like close to 100%.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) August 9, 2023
Grayscale recently stated that the SEC should approve all bitcoin spot ETF applications at the same time to prevent the company from gaining an advantage over other applicants.
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