Workers load export cargo onto cranes at a port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu Province, China, June 7, 2019.


BEIJING – International investment firms have changed their forecasts for China’s GDP almost every month this year, with JPMorgan making six adjustments since January.

That’s according to a CNBC analysis of company reports. JPMorgan did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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US investment banks recently cut their July GDP forecast to 5% from 5.5% previously.

Meanwhile, Citigroup and Morgan Stanley also cut rates to 5% this month.

The average forecast of the six companies studied by CNBC is now at 5.1%, close to the target of “around 5%” announced by Beijing in March.

Citi’s latest forecast marks the firm’s fourth adjustment this year. Morgan Stanley has adjusted its forecast just once since it was set in January.

During the same period, Nomura adjusted its forecast four times, UBS adjusted its forecast three times, and Goldman Sachs adjusted its forecast twice.

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Investment banks mostly raised their forecasts early this year after China’s economy initially rebounded after three years of strict COVID-19 containment.

Quarter-to-quarter revision

unofficial data

Agency Forecast

The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund also regularly publish economic forecasts for China and other countries. However, their reporting schedule means that the forecast may not exactly match the current economic situation.

In June, the World Bank raised its forecast for China’s economic growth this year to 5.6 percent from 4.3 percent previously.

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for China’s GDP growth to 5.2% in April from 4.4% previously. This month, its spokesman noted that China’s economic growth was slowing and said “updated forecasts” would be reflected in the IMF’s next World Economic Outlook.

Chinese officials have stressed over the past few weeks that the country It is expected to achieve the annual growth target of around 5%.

Of the six investment firms surveyed by CNBC, the highest Chinese GDP forecast so far this year is JPMorgan’s 6.4% – the bank’s second revision in April alone.

Overall, the company’s forecast range spanned 1.4 percentage points, the most in CNBC’s analysis.

Looking Beyond 2023

While businesses and investors expressed uncertainty about China’s near-term economic trajectory, analysts expect growth in the world’s second-largest economy to accelerate in the longer term.

“Overall, even without any meaningful policy support in the second half of 2023, China’s economy is likely to see a cyclical rebound in early 2024,” Rhodium Consulting analysts said.

Taking into account the four quarters, a steady recovery in household consumption should help boost employment in services, while industrial inventories may need to be restocked in the future, they said.


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