Bitcoin (BTC) entered the first week of July with traders breathing a sigh of relief as support at $30,000 held.

BTC price action has not succumbed to the bears after a 20% rally in the second quarter, with both weekly and monthly time frames looking strong. What’s next?

TradFi markets are expected to have a quiet week, with Wall Street gearing up for the Independence Day holiday and few U.S. macroeconomic data.

So, if the bulls want to break out of the multi-month resistance, Bitcoin needs a volatility trigger from elsewhere.

Market participants are divided on the topic, with some believing $32,000 and beyond are easily achievable, while others see this month as the pinnacle of Bitcoin’s 2023 recovery.

Cointelegraph looks at some of the major factors influencing BTC price performance in the days and weeks ahead.

Short-term BTC price rise to $40,000

Bitcoin’s weekly close was handy for bulls with little volatility, while BTC/USD continued higher overnight.

Bitstamp hits $30,850 in new week visits, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and transaction viewmarking the latest attempt at the $31,000 mark and yearly high.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The impetus for a trend change is still absent, leading more bullish traders to wait and see while the rally continues.

‘My Bitcoin plans remain the same,’ says popular trader Yeller Summarize revealed to Twitter followers as part of his latest analysis.

“The market structure is bullish and we have retraced the 200-week moving average. Once the $32,000 resistance area is breached, I would expect a bull run to begin. Until then, we would trade in a range and buy deeper pullbacks.”

Jelle referred to the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), which, along with the corresponding simple moving average (SMA), continues to act as market support after a brief challenge in June.

The accompanying chart shows the current all-time high of $69,000 as the first major upside target.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Jelle/Twitter

Fellow trader Crypto Ed is looking for a run to $36,000 or even $40,000, while factoring in the possibility of a pullback to $28,000 first — already a popular area to buy on dips.

He said that despite last-minute volatility at the end of the month, the market structure remains “good,” with BTC/USD rising to $29,500.

Meanwhile, on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators pointed to the role of Bitcoin whales in maintaining BTC’s price range.

“There is no doubt that BTC whales have been spread out in the $30K range, but they have also been buying the dips, which helps keep BTC in that range,” said part of further analysis Add to.

As Cointelegraph reported, BTC prices have never dropped more than 10% in July, but that hasn’t stopped one popular trader, CryptoBullet, from predicting the end of the month’s bullish run.

CryptoBullet predicts that the area around $36,000 will act as a local top and predicts that a downtrend will follow (including abandonment of key moving averages).

“I’m not saying we’re going to get down to 20,000 this month or next month. I think it’s going to happen in the fourth quarter,” he said. wrote Comments on his initial forecast followed on Twitter.

Banks in focus with bond-buying losses

Fortunately, the macroeconomic environment looks set to be calm this week with the US 4th of July holiday approaching.

Macroeconomic data is scarce, and barring a curve event, cryptocurrencies should not be subject to much volatility due to factors such as changes in inflation expectations.

However, those expectations still depend on raising interest rates when the Fed meets later this month to decide on future policy.

As of July 3, data The CME Group’s FedWatch tool puts the chance of a 0.25% hike at nearly 90%. The decision will be made in three weeks.

Fed target rate probability map.Source: CME Group

“With Fed rate expectations rapidly changing, every week looks critical. Meanwhile, stocks are hitting 52-week highs and trading very well.” Summarize On sentiment, called the week ahead “short but important”.

Elsewhere, U.S. banking is also under increasing scrutiny.

The performance of the KBW Regional Bank Index is evidence that regional banks are still struggling.

Even Bank of America (BoA) has drawn attention for its loss-making bond purchases, as has the Bundesbank.

“These incredible headlines don’t get enough attention,” says angel investor Balaji Srivinsan debate About an article in the Financial Times about the plight of the Bundesbank.

“The central bank of the world’s fourth largest economy may need a bailout because it bought bonds. This is not a tech crisis, or even a banking crisis. This is a bond crisis, a central bank crisis, a fiat crisis.”

Meanwhile, Kobeissi warned that there are many similarities between the Bank of America implosion that sparked the Bitcoin bull run in March and the current situation with Bank of America.

Bitcoin miners challenge record transaction transfers

Bitcoin miners are emphasizing the importance of BTC price action above and holding $30,000 – but probably not in the way bulls hoped.

Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode reveals The amount of tokens sent by miners to exchanges has increased significantly.

That’s even higher than it has been since April 2021, when BTC/USD hit $58,000, its first all-time high of the year.

Glassnode commented: “Bitcoin miners continue to send large volumes of BTC to exchanges as spot prices rise above the key psychological level of $30,000.”

“Currently, miners are sending $105 million to exchanges, the second largest dollar-denominated transfer on record.”

Annotated graph of bitcoin miner inflows to exchanges. Source: Glassnode/Twitter

However, since the beginning of 2023, the overall balance of miners has maintained a slow upward trend. January 1, Glassnode data programme The balance is 1,824,377 BTC, compared to 1,827,916 BTC on July 2.

Graph of bitcoin balances in miner wallets. Source: Glassnode

Although there are sales, there are very few sales evidence Indicates that Bitcoin miners are experiencing difficulties. Hashrate remains near all-time highs, while network difficulty is only 3.26% below the record level set last month.

An overview of the basics of the Bitcoin network (screenshots). Source: BTC.com

BTC holders take profits and refuse to sell

A more encouraging sight comes from a staunch group of Bitcoin investors who refuse to sell regardless of the price.

Even against the backdrop of this year’s rise, Bitcoin holders remain steadfast in their determination not to take profits collectively.

Now, this is reflected in the BTC supply that is deemed “illiquid,” or unreachable when strong buying pressure returns.

Glassnode’s illiquid supply change indicator is “extremely elevated” and is currently at levels not seen at any time except during the 2022 bear market. While the price is up, so is Hodler’s conviction.

On the face of it, holders have every reason to take profits at $30,000. Glassnode’s Long-Term Holder Market Value Versus Realized Value (LTH-MVRV) metric, which plots the profitability of tokens held for 155 days or more, currently shows an average profit margin of 47% for LTH entities.

Bitcoin LTH-MVRV chart. Source: Glassnode

Sentiment reflects investor indecision

Finally, the nervous nature of the average crypto market participant is still clearly visible in the sentiment data.

Related: Bitcoin Speculators Send 35,000 BTC to Exchanges in New ‘Elated Inflow’

Crypto Fear and Greed Index Continues emphasize The malleability of sentiment depends on how Bitcoin treats the $30,000 mark.

It’s not just BTC/USD that faces the task of flipping key resistance/support levels; Ethereum (ETH) also faces the uphill task of reclaiming $2,000.

As such, Fear & Greed continues to bounce between the mid-50s and mid-60s, representing a “neutral” to “greedy” market sentiment.

Crypto Fear and Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

The index’s current 2023 high of 69/100 is only about 10% above Bitcoin’s 2021 all-time high of $69,000.

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This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and transaction involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.