Most investors believe we are in a new bull market and there will be no recession in 2023

Most Wall Street investors believe the stock market has entered a new bull market and that the U.S. economy will avoid a recession in 2023, according to CNBC’s latest Delivering Alpha investor survey.

We surveyed approximately 400 chief investment officers, equity strategists, portfolio managers and CNBC contributors who manage money to find out where they are in the market during the third quarter and beyond. The survey was conducted last week.

61% of respondents believe the market has entered a new bull market, while 39% believe it is a bear market rally.

Technically, some have already announced the arrival of a new bull market. S&P 500 Index The close was up 20% from October’s bear market low, meeting the simplest criteria. However, many investors don’t think the bear market is over until the S&P 500 hits new highs. The broader benchmark’s all-time closing high was 4,796.56. The S&P 500 closed at 4,396.44 on Thursday.

Markets have managed to overcome a wall of worry so far this year, including rate hikes, the debt ceiling debate and a string of bank failures. The S&P 500 is coming off a strong end to the first half, with the index up nearly 15% after four straight months of gains.The performance of high-tech people Nasdaq Composite Index Amid Wall Street’s obsession with artificial intelligence, the numbers are even more impressive — up 30% this year.

“There are plenty of reasons to be constructive on U.S. stocks in the second half of 2023, especially since we’re finally starting to see greater market breadth,” said Carol Schleif, chief investment officer at BMO Family Office. “

Most investors believe the economy will avoid a severe downturn for at least this year, despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes. The Fed has raised rates at every meeting since March 2022, including four hikes by three-quarters of a point before pausing in June.

Many believe that the unique circumstances of this time — an unprecedented pandemic that has sparked historic fiscal and monetary responses — could lead to a recession unprecedented in history.

“We shouldn’t expect a standard recession in this unorthodox cycle,” said Jason Delaho, head of asset allocation for the Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management. “The economy could experience a rolling recession in different sectors.”

In terms of where investors put their money for the rest of 2023, they see the best returns in short-term Treasuries, the S&P 500 and foreign equity markets such as Japan, China and Europe.