Bitcoin is still stuck in a tight range, so it is difficult to predict the direction of the next possible breakout. The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which typically moves inversely with bitcoin (BTC), fell below 100, but that failed to push bitcoin higher. This suggests that Bitcoin is charting its own near-term direction.

As such, earnings season for major companies this week may affect U.S. stocks, but it may not have the same effect on Bitcoin. It is becoming increasingly difficult to identify events or news flows that will cause Bitcoin price to break out of the range.

Daily cryptocurrency market performance. source: Coin 360

Uncertainty over Bitcoin’s next move hasn’t deterred whales. SignalQuant, a contributing analyst at CryptoQuant, highlighted that one of the on-chain metrics, unspent transaction output, has been rising in 2023, similar to the increase seen in 2019. If the indicator continues to rise, it will indicate that Bitcoin has room to run and that the price of Bitcoin will be low. What forms at the end of 2022 is a long-term bottom.

Can the US dollar index recover? Will this limit the upside for Bitcoin and major altcoins? Let’s analyze the graph to find out.

S&P 500 Index Price Analysis

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is in a strong uptrend. The price has reached resistance at 4,513, which may act as a minor hurdle. But if bulls do not give up too much ground at current levels, it would suggest traders expect the rally to continue.

SPX daily chart. Source: TradingView

The negative divergence that was forming on the relative strength index (RSI) has been neutralized, showing that the bulls are still in command. If buyers push and sustain prices above 4,513, the index could resume its uptrend and reach 4,650. This level could again be a formidable hurdle.

On the way down, the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 4,420 is an important support to watch. If this support level disappears, it would suggest that the bulls may be taking profits. This could take the price down to the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,293.

US dollar index price analysis

The U.S. dollar index fell below the moving average on July 7 and continued its downward spiral. On July 12, the bears pulled the price below the important support at 100.82, forming a bearish descending triangle pattern.

DXY daily chart. Source: TradingView

The sharp decline over the past few days has pushed the RSI into oversold territory, suggesting a small recovery is possible. If the price recovers from current levels, the index may retest the breakout level of 100.82.

This remains a key level to watch. If the price turns down from this level, it will indicate that the bears have turned the previous support into resistance. This could start a downtrend that could reach 97 and then fall towards the pattern target of 93.64.

If the bulls want to arrest the decline, they will have to push the price quickly and sustain it above 100.82.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Bitcoin bulls have been defending the 20-day EMA ($30,173) for the past three days, but a negative sign is that they have failed to initiate a strong rally from this EMA. This suggests a lack of positive demand at current levels.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has started to flatten out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. This could keep the pair in a tight range between $29,500 and $31,500 for some time.

Buyers must push the price above $32,400 to signal the start of the next phase of the uptrend. The BTC/USDT pair could surge to $40,000. Conversely, if the price breaks below $29,500, the pair could slide towards the 50-day moving average ($28,671).

Ethereum Price Analysis

Ethereum (ETH) is trying to hold above the 20-day EMA ($1,897), which suggests that lower levels are attracting buyers.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will try to push the price to the psychological resistance of $2,000. This remains a key level to watch, as a breakout and close above it would clear the way for a possible rally to the $2,141 to $2,200 area.

A key support to watch on the downside is the 50-day moving average ($1,853). If this level breaks, it would suggest that the ETH/USDT pair could remain in a large range between $1,626 and $2,000 for some time.

Ripple Price Analysis

XRP (XRP) found support in the area between the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.69 and the 61.8% retracement level of $0.64.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will attempt to resume the uptrend but may face strong resistance at $0.83 and $0.93. If the price turns down from this area, the XRP/USDT pair may remain range-bound for a few days.

Another possibility is that the price turns down from the current levels and breaks below $0.64. If this happens, it will be an indication that the bulls are desperate to unwind their positions. This could lead the pair down to the 20-day EMA ($0.58).

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) declined from the 50-day moving average ($253) and re-entered a symmetrical triangle pattern on July 14. This shows that the bears are fiercely defending the overhead resistance at $265.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($244) has flattened out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. The BNB/USDT pair may oscillate inside the triangle for a few days.

Buyers must push and sustain the price above the triangle to gain the upper hand. The momentum is likely to gain momentum after the bulls pushed the price above the $265 overhead resistance. Alternatively, a break below the triangle would indicate the resumption of dominance of the bears. The pair could resume its downtrend below $220.

Solana Price Analysis

Solana (SOL) formed an intraday candlestick pattern on July 15 and 16, which indicates short-term uncertainty about the next direction to move.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Generally, a sharp breakout follows a tightening range. If the buyers push the price above $29.12, the SOL/USDT pair could jump to $32.13. A rally above this level could open the door for further gains to $38.

Conversely, if the price declines and breaks below $26, it will indicate that the advantage has shifted in favor of the bears. The pair could fall to $24 first and then to the 20-day EMA ($22.53).

related: Bitcoin’s ‘full breakout’ is yet to come as Bitcoin hits $30,000 this month

Cardano Price Analysis

The pullback in Cardano (ADA) is approaching the breakout level of $0.30. Typically, such a deep correction delays the start of the next rally.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

However, the moving averages are about to complete a bullish crossover and the RSI is in positive territory, suggesting that the bulls have a slight advantage. If the price recovers from the current levels, buyers will make another attempt to push the ADA/USDT pair to the overhead resistance of $0.38.

This is unlikely to be an easy path up for the bulls. The bears will try to stop the recovery at $0.34 and $0.36. On the downside, if there is a break and a close below $0.30, the advantages could favor the bears.

Dogecoin Price Analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) is witnessing an uphill battle between bulls and bears near the overhead resistance at $0.07.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.07) has started to rise and the RSI is in positive territory. This shows that the bulls have a slight advantage. The bulls will attempt to push the price above $0.08 and the bears may mount a strong defense again.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price declines and breaks below the moving averages, it will indicate that the bears continue to sell into rallies. This could keep the DOGE/USDT pair in a range of $0.06 to $0.07 for a while.

Polygon Price Analysis

Usually, the price falls and retests a breakout of some kind, and Polygon (MATIC) is doing just that. The price may drop to $0.72.

MATIC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buying at lower levels is recommended if the price rebounds strongly from $0.72. The bulls will then attempt to push the price above the overhead resistance of $0.90. If they do, the MATIC/USDT pair could start its next leg higher. The first stop is likely to be the psychological resistance at $1, followed by $1.20.

This positive view will be invalidated if the price continues lower and breaks below the uptrend line. The pair may then drop to $0.60.