Tesla CEO Elon Musk rides in a Tesla vehicle as he leaves a hotel in Beijing, China, May 31, 2023.

Tingshu Wang | Reuters

Tesla’s Bank of America analysts estimated in a note Tuesday that the U.S. EV market share will drop to 18% by 2026.

That would be a significant drop from BofA’s reported market share of 62% for Tesla in 2022, and even a further drop from its peak of 78% market share in 2018.

With existing automakers such as ford and General Motors Bank of America said it expects to increase its share of the U.S. electric vehicle market. Analysts estimate Ford and GM will have 8% and 5% market shares, respectively, in 2022 and are expected to grow to 14% market share each by 2026.

Overall, the distribution of US EV market share between incumbents and new entrants such as Tesla will shift from 35%/65% to 70%/30%, respectively, during this period.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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