Bitcoin (BTC) is “more likely” to remain range-bound until at least the fourth quarter of 2023, according to longtime market participant Filbfilb.

in a X thread On Aug. 25, the well-known analyst and co-founder of trading suite Decentrader told readers that BTC price action is expected to be flat by the end of the year.

Filbfilb: BTC Price Approaches “Moment of Truth”

Bitcoin may have disappointed bulls after a 70% rally in the first quarter, but for Filbfilb, BTC price action during this halving cycle is little different from previous price action.

“It’s been 1,200 days since Bitcoin’s last halving. During this time, Bitcoin has experienced a historic consolidation,” he explained.

Filbfilb uploaded various comparison charts predicting that miners should start increasing the price around the time of Bitcoin halving — which happens around 1,276 days after each halving.

“Miners have an incentive to ensure prices are well above marginal cost before the halving. Whether they consciously collude or not, they are collectively incentivized to drive prices higher before marginal revenue is effectively halved,” he wrote, adding that Smart money interested in “believing the rumours” on the potential positive bitcoin price impact of the halving also boosted the bitcoin price, he added. market in previous years.

The 1,276 post-halving figures for 2020 see early November as a potential deadline for such behavior to emerge.

Filbfilb predicted: “From a timing perspective, the fourth quarter seems to be a critical moment for BTC, and we may see tight supply and new funds driven by speculation.”

“Until then, it’s unusual for Bitcoin to split and it’s more likely to be a consolidation.”

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Filbfilb/X

Bitcoin’s macro risk remains ‘elephant in the room’

However, between now and then, Bitcoin could hit various curveballs, not the least of which is U.S. macroeconomic policy.

Related: Bitcoin Could Be Worth Below $20,000 in 2023, US Inflation Data Shows

The September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which will determine the benchmark interest rate, is of particular interest to risk asset bulls.

Philb describes the macro aspect as “obviously the elephant in the room.”

He wrote: “If it can hold steady, then I believe game theory will play out and Bitcoin will convincingly break through $30,000 by the end of 2023.”

If a more pessimistic scenario plays out and Bitcoin returns to $20,000, the current local high of $31,800 in 2023 may still be valid.

He concluded: “I suggest that if this happens, and in a very short period of time, then the pre-halving rally may only take us to the 2023 highs we have seen, and breaking it will happen later.”

Potential Bitcoin/USD scenarios. Source: Filbfilb/X

As Cointelegraph reported, other analysts are also calculating the number of days between halvings, resulting in different BTC price predictions.

Asset manager Pantera Capital this week unveiled a target of $35,000 for the next halving and a post-halving target of $148,000 in 2024, while another recent forecast suggested that $100,000 would not be reached under any circumstances.

This article does not contain investment advice or advice. Every investment and transaction involves risk, and readers should do their own research when making a decision.